Publications
Books
Reputation and International Cooperation: Sovereign Debt across Three Centuries. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007. [Short synopsis] [Longer synopsis] [Available from Princeton University Press and Amazon.com]
Modern Political Economy and Latin America: Theory and Policy (edited with Jeffry Frieden and Manuel Pastor). Boulder: Westview Press, 2000. [Synopsis] [Available from Amazon.com]
Articles
The Domestic Political Costs of Soliciting Foreign Electoral Intervention (with Jessica Weeks). Journal of Politics, forthcoming. [Abstract] [Supplementary Materials] [Replication Files]
Megastudy Testing 25 Treatments to Reduce AntiDemocratic Attitudes and Partisan Animosity (with Jan Voelkel and others), Science 386, no. 6719 (18 October 2024). [Abstract] [Supplementary Materials]
How Persuasive is AI-Generated Propaganda? (with Josh A. Goldstein, Jason Chao, Shelby Grossman, and Alex Stamos). PNAS Nexus 3, no. 2 (February 2024): pgae034. [Abstract] [Supplementary File 1 and 2] [Replication Files]
Research Can Help to Tackle AI-Generated Disinformation. (With Stefan Feuerriegel, Renée DiResta, Josh A. Goldstein, Srijan Kumar, Philipp Lorenz-Spreen, and Nicolas Pröllochs). Nature Human Behaviour 7 (2023): 1818–21. [Abstract]
How Membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Transforms Public Support for War (with Jessica Weeks and Kirk Bansak). PNAS Nexus 2, no. 7 (July 2023): pgad206. [Abstract] [Supplementary Materials] [Replication Files]
The Effects of Naming and Shaming on Public Support for Compliance with International Agreements: An Experimental Analysis of the Paris Agreement (with Dustin Tingley). International Organization 76, no. 2 (Spring 2022): 445-68. [Abstract] [Supplementary Materials] [Replication Files]
Military Alliances and Public Support for War (with Jessica Weeks). International Studies Quarterly, Volume 65, Issue 3, September 2021, Pages 811–824. [Abstract] [Supplementary Materials] [Replication Files]
Public Opinion and Foreign Electoral Intervention (with Jessica Weeks). American Political Science Review 114, no. 3 (August 2020): 856–73. [Abstract] [Supplementary Materials] [Replication Files]
Public Opinion and Decisions about Military Force in Democracies (with Jessica Weeks and Keren Yarhi-Milo). International Organization 74, no. 1 (Winter 2020): 119–43. [Abstract] [Supplementary Materials]
Human Rights and Public Support for War (with Jessica Weeks). Journal of Politics 82, no. 1 (January 2020): 182–94. [Abstract] [Supplementary Materials] [Replication Files]
International Commitments and Domestic Opinion: The Effect of the Paris Agreement on Public Support for Policies to Address Climate Change (with Dustin Tingley), Environmental Politics 29, no. 7 (2020): 1135-1156. [Abstract] [Supplementary Materials]
Does Private Regulation Preempt Public Regulation? (with Neil Malhotra and Benoit Monin). American Political Science Review 113, no. 1 (February 2019): 19–37. [Abstract] [Supplementary Materials] [Replication Files]
Why Don’t Trade Preferences Reflect Economic Self-Interest? (with Sungmin Rho). International Organization 72, no. S1 (2017): S85–S108. [Abstract] [Supplementary Materials] [Replication Files]
Conditional Cooperation and Climate Change (with Dustin Tingley). Comparative Political Studies 47, no. 3 (March 2014): 344–68. [Abstract]
Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace (with Jessica Weeks). American Political Science Review 107, no. 4 (November 2013): 849–865. [Abstract] [Supplementary Materials]
Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default (with Mark Wright). Annual Review of Economics 5 (May 2013): 247–272. [Abstract]
International Finance. In Handbook of International Relations, 2nd ed., eds. Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth Simmmons, pp. 692–719. New York: Sage, 2012. [Abstract]
Sovereign Theft: Theory and Evidence about Sovereign Default and Expropriation (with Mark Wright). In The Natural Resources Trap: Private Investment without Public Commitment, eds. William Hogan and Federico Sturzenegger, pp. 69–110. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2010. [Abstract] [Replication Files]
The Electoral Implications of Candidate Ambiguity (with Robert Van Houweling). American Political Science Review 103, no. 1 (February 2009): 83–98. [Abstract]
The Foundations of Domestic Audience Costs: Attitudes, Expectations, and Institutions. In Kitai, Seido, Gurobaru-shakai (Expectations, Institutions, and Global Society), eds. Masaru Kohno and Aiji Tanaka, pp. 85–97. Tokyo: Keiso-Shobo, 2009. The final version in Japanese is here. [Abstract]
Candidate Positioning and Voter Choice (with Robert Van Houweling). American Political Science Review 102, no. 3 (August 2008): 303–18. [Abstract] [Replication Files]
Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach. International Organization 61, no. 4 (Fall 2007): 821–40. [Abstract] [Longer version of paper] [Replication Files]
Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade? Comment (with Judith Goldstein and Douglas Rivers). American Economic Review 97, no. 5 (December 2007): 2005–18. [Abstract] [Coverage in the Economist] [Replication Files] [Dataset]
Institutions in International Relations: Understanding the Effects of the GATT and the WTO on World Trade (with Judith Goldstein and Douglas Rivers). International Organization 61 (Winter 2007): 37–67. [Abstract] [Replication Files]
Do Countries Default in Bad Times? (with Mark Wright). Journal of the European Economic Association 5, no. 2-3 (May 2007): 352–60. [Abstract] [Longer version of paper]
How Does Voting Equipment Affect the Racial Gap in Voided Ballots? (with Robert Van Houweling). American Journal of Political Science 47, no. 1 (January 2003): 46–60. [Abstract] [Research Note]
An Easy and Accurate Regression Model for Multiparty Electoral Data (with Joshua Tucker and Jason Wittenberg). Political Analysis 10, no. 1 (Winter 2002): 66–83. [Abstract]
Making the Most of Statistical Analysis: Improving Interpretation and Presentation (with Gary King and Jason Wittenberg) American Journal of Political Science 44, no. 2 (April 2000): 347–61. [Abstract]
Electoral Surprise and the Midterm Loss in US Congressional Elections (with Kenneth Scheve). British Journal of Political Science 29 (July 1999): 507–21. [Abstract]
The Long-Run Advantages of Centralization for Collective Action (with Edward Schwartz). American Political Science Review 91 (September 1997): 685–93. [Abstract]